LatAm Tech Weekly

225: the HALO effect, recent news on AI, deals of the week... and much more!

Weekly writing about what is happening in LatAm tech. By day, I am part of the corporate development team at Itau Unibanco. By night, I am reading and learning about technology in general (now, with a focus on AI). During the weekends, I’m writing the LatAm Tech Weekly. And obviously, always running!

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Happy Sunday!

Back to reality after a few magical (and slightly exhausting) days at Disney — recharged, energized, and excited for what’s ahead.

Before we dive in, a quick note. I’m fully aware of the geopolitical tensions unfolding around the world right now. As an informed human being, I’m not indifferent to them — far from it. But as longtime readers know, this is a LatAm Tech newsletter. You won’t find political commentary or ideological debates here.

That’s not because those discussions aren’t important... It’s simply not my focus. There are plenty of excellent publications covering geopolitics in depth — and doing so far better than I could. Here, we stay anchored in technology, capital, founders, markets, and the long-term transformation of Latin America.

With that said — let’s dig in.

I don’t know if it was because I was traveling this past week, but I landed with the clear feeling that a lot happened in AI — even by AI standards.

From Google and its new “Nano Banana” model announcement, to Block’s job cuts, to OpenAI’s new funding round, and Anthropic’s very public standoff with the U.S. government — things are moving absurdly fast…Not just because of model releases. But because of the second-order effects that are starting to show up more frequently - how companies hire, how software gets priced, where data centers can even plug into the grid, and — increasingly — how governments decide what is “acceptable” to deploy.

All of this leads to uncertainty, and when markets encounter this level of uncertainty, history shows they gravitate toward something familiar.

In AI language, this means that markets reach for things you can’t “vibe-code” into existence…

And that brings us to this week’s theme: the HALO effect.

The HALO Effect — and Why Wall Street Is Talking About It

HALO stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

The term was coined earlier this month by Josh Brown — CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a widely followed market commentator and regular voice on CNBC. Brown is a media personality; and rather influential among institutional and retail investors alike. He summarized it repeatedly on-air:

“Repeat after me: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence.”

From there, banks in the US started to institutionalize the idea — publishing formal research and creating stock “baskets” around the theme. That’s usually the point where a slogan becomes a trade.

According to strategists, their HALO basket — capital-intensive firms with hard-to-replicate infrastructure — has outperformed asset-light peers by roughly 35% since the start of 2025.

So what does HALO mean in plain English?

It’s a rotation toward businesses whose value is anchored in physical networks and complex infrastructure:

• Power grids

• Pipelines

• Railroads

• Industrial capacity

• Energy production

• Logistics systems

That is, businesses that: take years (and permits) to build; are capital intensive and regulated and do not become obsolete because a new model benchmarks better.

In other words, we may be entering a regime where asset intensity matters again — where markets reward engineering complexity and physical bottlenecks over pure capital-light scalability. That is, with the HALO effect, investors are favoring “capacity, networks, and infrastructure exposure” in an AI-saturated environment.

How It Showed Up in Markets This Week

Note that the term is not new, it first came up as a narrative around 2021. But, this week, it once again gain momentum as three storylines collided.

1) The Software Shock (Again)

If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you know I’ve been talking about the “SaaS-pocalypse” since the start of 2026. This week it resurfaced. Software stocks slid again as layoffs and AI-driven productivity gains revived an uncomfortable question:

If AI agents replace headcount, what happens to per-seat pricing?

For over a decade, SaaS scaled linearly with employment growth. Now the opposite risk is emerging: fewer seats, fewer licenses. Earlier in February, Reuters reported that global software stocks had already seen close to $1 trillion erased during the initial AI-disruption scare. That positioning hasn’t fully recovered. This is the “Low Obsolescence” part of HALO at work.

If investors worry that software can be replicated, automated, or commoditized by the next model release, they start demanding a higher risk premium.

2) The Physical Bottleneck: Power

As AI becomes more infrastructure-hungry, the constraint is shifting. It’s no longer: “Who has the best model?” It’s increasingly: “Who can secure electricity, transformers, land, and permits?”. Sure, Open AI and Anthropic announced gigantic deals and valuations this week… but in essence it does not matter if they can’t have the power.

Accordingly, together with the mega-deals, multiple reports surfaced this week pointing to data center delays caused by grid capacity shortages and equipment constraints. In some regions, major projects are facing multi-year pushbacks.

The HALO effect in itself!

If AI is colliding with grid reality, then grid owners, utilities, engineering firms, and energy producers become the systemically critical layer. The bottleneck is no longer compute intelligence — it’s physical infrastructure.

3) The Political Stress Test: Anthropic vs. the U.S. Government

On February 27, 2026, it was reported that President Trump ordered federal agencies to cease using Anthropic’s technology after the Pentagon labeled the company a potential supply-chain risk amid disagreements over safeguards and military usage.

Regardless of where you stand politically (or the outcome of this issue specifically), the market takeaway was sobering: Software businesses, no matter how advanced, operate on regulatory and political permission. Contracts can be paused. Platforms can be restricted. Access can be revoked. Physical networks — pipelines, rail systems, power plants — cannot be de-platformed overnight.

The Anthropic episode appears ongoing, with negotiations and legal review underway, but the immediate consequence was clear: investors were reminded how quickly “asset-light” value can face existential shocks tied to policy risk.

That reinforced the HALO thesis in real time.

What HALO Implies for Private Tech Markets

Again if you are an avid reader, you know that I often say that public markets move first — but private markets always follow along.

Here’s how I believe the private markets will be affected sooner rather than later:

1) “Asset-Light” No Longer Automatically Means “High Multiple”

If AI compresses pricing power and lowers replication costs, durability becomes the scarce asset. That shifts diligence toward:

• Distribution advantages

• Regulatory barriers

• Proprietary data access

• Deep workflow integration

• Switching costs

Growth alone becomes less sufficient as a justification for premium pricing. So, we should see a slight adjustment in AI valuations in general - as all investors will be taking into account these points before investing.

2) Investors Pay Up for AI-Adjacent Scarcity

We are already seeing private capital is increasingly flowing toward:

• Data centers

• Power generation

• Cooling systems

• Industrial automation

• Materials and grid infrastructure

Not because they’re “anti-tech,” but because they’re underwriting AI from the bottleneck outward. The next batch of high valuation companies will be less about software, and more about tangible assets (all related to AI, obviously).

3) Pricing Models Come Under Scrutiny

Per-seat pricing is being questioned. Usage-based, outcome-based, and throughput pricing models look structurally more aligned with an AI-agent world.

Even incumbents like Microsoft are reportedly rethinking bundling and pricing structures as the industry debates how AI changes licensing economics.

HALO is not anti-technology. It’s technology — but constrained by physics, regulation, and energy.

So What Does This Mean for LatAm Tech?

You’re probably asking: what does this have to do with Latin America?

Quite a lot, actually. LatAm sits at a fascinating intersection of this shift.

1) LatAm Is “HALO-Rich” by Nature - our region is structurally heavy in what AI ultimately needs:

• Energy

• Land

• Minerals and metals

• Agricultural output

• Logistics corridors

If global capital is repricing scarcity and resilience, LatAm’s comparative advantage becomes more visible.

The MSCI EM Latin America index has significantly outperformed broader emerging markets this year — in part because it is naturally exposed to HALO-style assets.

2) LatAm Asset-Light Tech May Feel Multiple Pressure

Publicly listed LatAm fintech and digital platform companies can get dragged into the global “asset-light risk” trade — even if fundamentals are solid — because allocators often bucket them as global tech proxies.

Multiple compression can arrive via global flows, not local performance. That’s important for founders and VCs thinking about exit timing and comparable sets.

3) The Opportunity: Attach AI to Heavy Assets

This is where the story becomes constructive. The biggest opportunity for LatAm founders may not be pure digital abstraction. It may be building companies that attach intelligence to physical bottlenecks:

• Grid optimization and power forecasting

• AI for mining, agriculture, and energy efficiency

• Logistics intelligence across ports and corridors

• Data center ecosystems where the differentiator is land + power contracts + permitting

If HALO is correct, the next generation of tech winners will not be as “sexy”, their moat may be:

• Steel

• Concrete

• Rights-of-way

• Regulatory licenses

And that might be the cleanest takeaway from this week: AI is accelerating at an extraordinary pace. But the world it runs on remains stubbornly physical.

General news:

• Engie is evaluating Bitcoin mining to monetize curtailed solar energy in Brazil using excess generation from its 753 MW Assú Sol complex, fully commissioned in Feb. 2026 after a R$3.3B investment. With curtailment pressures rising amid rapid renewable expansion and grid constraints, the company is studying partnerships and infrastructure options to convert stranded energy into new revenue streams. 🇧🇷

• Onda Finance is integrating stablecoins into its trade finance platform to streamline cross-border payments for mid-market companies under Brazil’s new crypto framework. Founded in 2024, the fintech reported 300x growth in its first year, processing R$4.5B in volume and offering multi-currency accounts across 13 currencies as it expands globally. 🇧🇷

• OpenAI is projecting up to $665B in data center and model training investments over the next five years, lifting spending expectations by at least $111B. The company generated $13.1B in 2025 revenue and expects to surpass $30B this year but does not anticipate breakeven before 2030 as compute costs surge. 🌎

• Sempli is expanding its SME lending strategy with a new vehicle financing line targeting 75% growth in disbursements and nearly 20% portfolio expansion. The fintech, which serves 4,700 clients and manages ~$88M in assets, aims to capture a $37–38B addressable market while maintaining disciplined credit metrics. 🇨🇴

Deals:

• Humand raised a $66M Series A led by Kaszek and Goodwater to accelerate product development and global expansion after entering Brazil. The HRTech already serves 1.6M users across 1,500 organizations in 51 countries and is investing heavily in AI to capture the underserved operational workforce segment. 🇦🇷

• Tools for the Commons raised R$10M in a pre-seed round to build a blockchain-enabled marketplace of physical and digital special economic zones. The startup plans to scale to 4–8 active zones and up to 10,000 companies while expanding across LatAm, Africa and Asia. 🇧🇷

• Celcoin received Central Bank approval to acquire Via Capital SCD and increase the institution’s capital to R$11.5M, marking its seventh acquisition since 2022. The move strengthens its end-to-end credit infrastructure, which already serves more than 750 clients. 🇧🇷

• Comp raised a $17.5M Series A led by Khosla Ventures to expand its AI-driven “service as software” HR platform. After 400% growth in 2025, the company plans to scale its São Paulo team and open a New York office to accelerate U.S. expansion. 🇧🇷

• Bravo secured a credit facility of up to €200M from Fortress to expand its credit division and scale its tech-driven debt management platform across Mexico and Latin America. Since 2009, the fintech has settled over 500,000 debts totaling €1B. 🇲🇽

General news:

• Shopee received Central Bank approval to launch financial institution Monee SCFI, starting with R$10M in capital and expanding its payments and credit capabilities in Brazil. The move builds on its earlier approval to acquire Blu and strengthens Shopee’s embedded finance strategy for its 8.6M fintech users. 🇧🇷

• Canary launched its fourth fund at $150M, maintaining its early-stage focus across Brazil and Latin America. Backed by institutional LPs including IDB, IFC and JICA, the firm continues to invest in sectors such as fintech, climate, healthcare and B2B, following prior funds of $50M (2017), $75M (2019/20) and $100M (2021). 🇧🇷

• Stripe reached a $159B valuation after a secondary share sale, up more than 70% YoY, as the payments giant continues to prioritize AI-driven products, stablecoins and global expansion. The company processed $1.9T in volume in 2025 (+34%), with more than half of new customers now coming from outside the U.S. 🌎

Deals:

• Stripe is reportedly exploring a full or partial acquisition of PayPal in a potential consolidation move within global digital payments, though discussions remain preliminary. PayPal shares jumped 6.7% on the news, while competitive pressure from Apple Pay and Google Pay continues to weigh on its growth outlook. 🌎

• Prometeo and Fiskil formed a strategic alliance for Open Finance in Colombia, combining bank connectivity APIs with enterprise-grade consent management and regulatory monitoring. The partnership aims to accelerate adoption as the country advances toward mandatory Open Finance implementation. 🇨🇴

General news:

• Insper-linked startups have raised $1.79B since 2011, representing 4.1% of the $43.4B invested in Brazilian venture capital over the period and reinforcing the school’s role as an entrepreneurship hub. The institution mapped 201 startups tied to its ecosystem, with $141.4M raised in 2025 alone, and continues to expand programs aimed at accelerating early-stage founders and strengthening angel and seed connectivity. 🇧🇷

• Startups and Confraria do Empreendedor formalized an institutional partnership to deepen information sharing, strategic connections and ecosystem initiatives. The invitation-only community now exceeds 3,000 members across Brazil and Portugal and plans to expand content, events and networking programs through the alliance. 🇧🇷

• ByteDance reached a $550B valuation via a secondary share sale led by General Atlantic, marking a 66% increase from the prior year’s buyback and a 15% rise from a November 2025 secondary. The move follows restructuring of TikTok’s U.S. operations and signals continued strong private-market momentum. 🌎

• Mexico’s fintech lending market remains structurally underserved despite 174 active platforms, with only ~30% of adults accessing credit. New entrants are deploying AI-driven underwriting and hybrid physical-digital models to expand reach in underbanked regions while modernizing legacy microcredit infrastructure. 🇲🇽

• RappiCredit launched operations in Spain, marking its first international expansion after more than 11 years in Colombia. The fintech has issued over six million loans and is localizing its credit engines to capture demand among Spanish consumers and Latin American immigrants. 🇪🇸

• Zenvia announced plans to voluntarily delist from Nasdaq citing low liquidity, high compliance costs and limited access to U.S. capital markets. The company will refocus on higher-margin SaaS and AI-driven CX products for its base of more than 10,000 clients across Latin America. 🇧🇷

Deals:

• TYR Energia acquired efficiency SaaS GreenAnt to strengthen its positioning ahead of Brazil’s power market liberalization expected by 2028. The deal adds 180 corporate clients and more than 4,000 metering points while giving TYR exclusive access to AI-driven energy intelligence tools. 🇧🇷

• Addi secured $89M in structured financing from Citi to expand its BNPL and payments platform. The funding deepens institutional backing and supports the fintech’s strategy to scale responsible credit in a region where roughly 70% of consumers lack credit cards. 🇨🇴

General news:

• Itaú Unibanco launched Feito.Itaú, a proprietary editorial hub aimed at expanding access to financial education and strengthening consultative client relationships. The platform debuts with more than 150 pieces of content and plans to publish about 70 new items monthly, responding to research showing 67% of Brazilians expect advisory support from banks. Integrated with the bank’s superapp and personalization strategy, the initiative positions content as a strategic layer to advance customer primacy and AI-enabled financial guidance. 🇧🇷

• Keeta postponed its planned Rio de Janeiro launch citing exclusivity agreements in Brazil’s highly concentrated delivery market, where a single player holds roughly 80% share. Despite the delay, Meituan’s food delivery app reaffirmed plans to invest R$5.6B in Brazil over five years and has already reached more than 2.8M downloads and nearly 38,000 restaurants since entering São Paulo. 🇧🇷

• Hotmart is accelerating its AI strategy with autonomous agents as AI-focused products generated more than R$140M on the platform in 2025. The company saw 340,000 users purchase AI courses (+326% since 2023) and is deploying sales, collections and tutoring agents to scale creator monetization globally. 🇧🇷

Deals:

• Mercado Parts raised R$2M in a round led by Investidores.vc to scale its data-driven B2B marketplace connecting the auto aftermarket supply chain. The platform already supports a seller network generating over R$9B annually and plans to expand into heavy vehicles while targeting a 10x increase in transaction volume. 🇧🇷

• Genial Care raised an $8M Series B led by General Catalyst at a valuation more than 50% above its prior round. The autism care healthtech will expand its São Paulo centers and AI clinical platform after growing its active family base 75% and tripling revenue last year. 🇧🇷

• Staged Ventures exited its SpaceX position less than two years after entry, delivering a 3.48x return and ~77% annualized gains. The Brazilian manager chose an early secondary exit rather than waiting for a potential IPO, citing strong risk-adjusted returns. 🌎

• Yield Lab Latam invested in IncorporarTec through its Opportunity Fund to expand the agrifintech’s rural lending infrastructure. The platform has already enabled more than 100,000 loans totaling $200M and will use the capital to scale its Agrifintech-as-a-Service model across Latin America. 🌎

General news:

• ACE Ventures and gener8tor launched Softlanding Brazil to attract high-growth international startups into the Brazilian market. The program will select five U.S. companies for virtual preparation followed by an in-country immersion in São Paulo and six months of mentoring, targeting sectors such as agriculture and sustainability. 🇧🇷

• Moonflow partnered with Puntored to expand AI-driven collections in Mexico, combining its autonomous negotiation platform with Puntored’s nationwide payment network. The integration enables omnichannel collections and real-time reconciliation for financial institutions and service providers, strengthening Moonflow’s regional expansion strategy. 🇲🇽

• Vita Wallet became the first international institution authorized to operate crypto in Bolivia under the country’s new fintech framework. The Chilean fintech plans to bridge fiat and crypto flows while targeting $2B in transaction volume by 2026. 🇧🇴

• Caixa Econômica Federal plans to launch a new superapp by June as part of a broader digital transformation backed by R$6.5B in technology investments for 2026. The initiative includes expanded cybersecurity and a defined cloud strategy to modernize Brazil’s largest public banking platform. 🇧🇷

• Block cut 4,000 jobs, or about 40% of its workforce as it restructures around AI-driven productivity across its payments ecosystem. The market reacted positively, sending shares up 17%, while Cash App gross profit rose 33% on loan growth. 🇺🇸

Deals:

• Irani Ventures invested R$1M in bio-packaging startup Growpack, resuming its corporate venture activity and reinforcing an existing strategic partnership. The cleantech has quadrupled revenue over the past 12 months as it scales biomaterials made from agricultural waste. 🇧🇷

• Netflix abandoned its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after declining to match Paramount Skydance’s higher $31-per-share proposal. Netflix shares rose about 8.8% following the decision, which ends a months-long takeover battle. 🌎

• OpenAI announced a $110B funding round at a $730B pre-money valuation with Amazon committing $50B and both Nvidia and SoftBank investing $30B each. The capital will fund massive compute expansion and deepen AWS infrastructure commitments. 🌎

• Oxus Finance raised $2.4M led by Echo3 Participações to expand its AI-powered cross-border remittance infrastructure. The B2B fintech aims to integrate stablecoins and position itself as a liquidity aggregator across traditional FX and crypto rails. 🇧🇷

The most important piece of news in AI this week was not a single model debut or funding round, but rather a series of cascading events triggered by one occurrence: the U.S. government’s confrontation with Anthropic — and the ripple effects that followed across the industry.

1. Pentagon blacklists Anthropic

The U.S. Department of Defense formally labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” and ordered federal agencies to halt the use of its AI systems. The dispute centers on Anthropic’s refusal to relax guardrails around military applications, particularly related to surveillance and autonomous weapons.

2. OpenAI secures expanded U.S. defense access

Shortly after the Anthropic decision, OpenAI reached an agreement to deploy its models within U.S. Department of Defense classified networks, with defined restrictions.

3. Market and consumer reaction boosts Claude

In the wake of the controversy, Anthropic’s Claude saw a surge in public downloads. Whether driven by visibility, sympathy, or curiosity, the episode demonstrated how policy disputes can directly affect platform adoption and brand perception in the AI space.

4. AI governance becomes the central battleground

Beyond product releases and funding rounds, this episode reinforced a structural shift: the core competition in AI is no longer only about model capability. It is about who sets the rules, who gains privileged access to state infrastructure, and how ethical constraints are negotiated under geopolitical pressure.

Taken together, this was the defining AI story of the week — because it signals that the next phase of the AI cycle will be shaped as much by power, policy, and positioning as by model performance.

• South Summit Brazil 2026
  Date: March 25–27, 2026
  Location: Porto Alegre, Brazil
  Description: A global innovation platform connecting startups, corporations, and investors to foster entrepreneurship and scalable business growth.
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• Brazil at Silicon Valley 2026
  Date: April 6–8, 2026
  Location: Sunnyvale, CA, USA
  Description: A conference connecting Brazilian leaders and entrepreneurs with Silicon Valley to promote innovation, investment, and cross-border business.
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• VTEX Day 2026
  Date: April 16–17, 2026
  Location: São Paulo, Brazil
  Description: One of the world’s largest digital commerce events, bringing together global retail leaders, brands, and technology innovators.
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• Gramado Summit 2026
  Date: May 6–8, 2026
  Location: Gramado, Brazil
  Description: A technology and innovation festival combining business, strategy, marketing, and public-sector innovation discussions.
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• RIO2C 2026
  Date: May 26–June 1, 2026
  Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  Description: A creativity-driven event connecting technology, media, audiovisual, music, sustainability, and entrepreneurship.
  More info

• South Summit Madrid 2026
  Date: June 3–5, 2026
  Location: Madrid, Spain
  Description: A global innovation conference connecting startups seeking scale with investors and corporations looking for new opportunities.
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• Web Summit Rio 2026
  Date: June 8–11, 2026
  Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  Description: Part of the Web Summit global series, the event connects startups, investors, and tech leaders across Latin America.
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• Febraban Tech 2026
  Date: June 24–26, 2026
  Location: São Paulo, Brazil
  Description: One of the main financial technology and innovation events for the banking and financial services sector in Latin America.
  More info

• Financial Times: Investors seek shelter from AI rout in asset-heavy stocks

• Bloomberg: Goldman Team Says Asset-Heavy Stocks Outperform on AI Fears

• Brazil Journal: As ações brasileiras que devem ganhar com o ‘HALO trade’

• Nothing relevant this week - just the usual AI Daily Brief Podcast

“We exercised our classic First Amendment rights to speak up and disagree with the government. Disagreeing with the government is the most American thing in the world, and we are patriots in everything we have done here,” — Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on resisting Pentagon demands and maintaining ethical guardrails around AI use