LatAm Tech Weekly
#195: State of Venture H1 2025, M&As in Brazil, VC fundraising timeline, deals of the week... and much more!
Weekly writing about what is happening in LatAm tech. By day, I lead the business development team at Itau Unibanco. By night, I am reading and learning about technology in general (now, with a focus on AI). During the weekends, I’m writing the LatAm Tech Weekly.
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Happy Sunday!
By now, you probably know this about me: I’m obsessed with artificial intelligence—and for a very good reason. The world is changing at lightning speed because of it, and if you still haven’t wrapped your head around that… you’re already late to the game!
Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about the value of my work—this newsletter included—amid all the AI-generated noise. And honestly? That’s exactly why this newsletter matters. Sure, I’ll happily let ChatGPT help me polish a sentence or two (why wouldn’t I?), but everything you read here—the research, the curation, the perspective—is 100% mine.
I’m not here to just summarize a paper for you. My job is to read widely, talk to people in the ecosystem, connect the dots, and then distill what truly matters—layered with my own take. Because while AI can summarize a single report, it can’t replace judgment: deciding which sources matter, how they fit together, and why they’re important right now.
This week was a perfect example. I devoured dozens of reports and articles, and I love this part of the year—when the first half wraps up (hello, H1 2025!) and, after a bit of digestion, all the big numbers and insights finally start coming out. Different outlets highlight different angles, and I love pulling them together into one big picture. That’s where the real value lies—the combination of sources, experience, and context.
So here’s what we’re diving into today: I’ll start with an overview of the VC and tech landscape in H1 2025, then connect it to the current fundraising trends. Naturally, this leads us to the exit front—secondaries, IPOs, M&As—and I’ll share a few thoughts on what might be coming next.
We’ll wrap up with updates on stablecoins and regulation and, of course, the latest on (yes, you guessed it) AI.
Let’s get started!
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Opinions expressed here are solely my own and does not represent those of people, institutions, organizations that I may or may not be associated with in any capacity, unless explicitly stated.
Pitchbook released this week its Venture Monitor for the first semester of 2025. In Q2 2025, VCs deployed $69.9 billion across roughly 4,001 deals globally—a 24.8% drop quarter over quarter. But let’s be clear: this was mostly a base-effect issue. The quarter lacked a mega-deal like OpenAI’s $40 billion round in Q1, which alone would have accounted for about 57% of Q2’s total. By comparison, Q2’s biggest transaction was Scale AI’s $14.3 billion venture-growth round—still the second-largest VC deal ever, but obviously far smaller in scale.
That said, H1 2025 was huge for growth-stage VC. Fueled by outsized Q1 rounds and unrelenting AI hype, investors poured $83.9 billion across an estimated 499 deals at the growth stage. Annualized, that’s $167.8 billion—already well above the 2021 peak of $91.6 billion, putting this year on track to break records. And while another OpenAI-sized outlier isn’t likely, AI remains the main engine: Q2’s Scale AI deal featured Meta buying a 49% stake, and AI companies continue to dominate the top end of the market.
In fact, in Q2 alone, five AI deals topped $1 billion—Scale AI, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machine Labs, Anduril, and Grammarly. AI represented 64.1% of H1’s deal value and 35.6% of deal count, showing investors are still all-in on the sector.
Looking only at LatAm, Sling Hub data shows that Q2 2025 had approximately $2 billion invested across 149 deals—a solid 73% increase from Q1. While Brazil continued to dominate deal volume, hosting 91 of those rounds, Mexico led in dollar value with $882 million raised, outperforming Brazil’s haul. Notably, Mexico outpaced Brazil in venture dollars for the first time since 2012, raising $437 million (+85% YoY, +81% QoQ), compared to Brazil’s $350 million, which marked a decline of –23% YoY and –14% QoQ.
Valuations are telling a somewhat positive story. VC pre-money medians rose YoY in Q2, with every stage except Series D+ hitting decade highs. The message is clear: GPs are being selective, backing fewer but stronger companies, and paying up for quality. Valuation multiples are stretching, especially in AI, where the market is struggling to price future potential. This bifurcation is stark—well-positioned startups are raising big rounds, while weaker ones are getting squeezed. Founders who can command that confidence are raising larger rounds upfront to extend runway and delay future fundraising…
Median deal sizes also climbed across all stages in Q2: pre-seed surged 42.3% YoY, Series C jumped 40.5%, and seed rose 16.1%. Meanwhile, smaller deals are shrinking as a share of the market: sub-$5 million rounds fell to 48.6% of total VC deals, down from 55.4% in 2024, marking a decade low. Clearly, capital is concentrating on startups with real traction.
On the corporate side, CVC activity continues to cool. Only 1,112 corporate investors have closed a deal so far this year—just 35.7% of the 2022 high. And they’re taking less risk: seed/pre-seed deals now represent only 24% of CVC activity, compared to more than a third in 2022. At this pace, 2025 could hit the lowest share of early-stage CVC deals since 2017. But corporates are still piling into AI—42% of CVC deals in 2025 have targeted AI companies, up from 35% in 2024 and 25% in 2021. For them, it’s as much about staying relevant as it is about returns. A recent McKinsey survey shows 78% of organizations already use AI in at least one operation, and CVCs are leveraging those insights to spot where AI can cut costs or drive growth.
Meanwhile, crossover investors are sitting out—at least relative to 2021 levels. They participated in only $11 billion worth of VC deals in Q2, the lowest in six quarters and the third-lowest since 2020. Outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, they’ve been largely absent from the mega AI rounds corporates are chasing. The largest crossover deal in Q2 was Neuralink’s $650 million raise. Many of these funds still seem wary after the overexuberance of 2021—and some AI valuations may simply feel too rich for their taste.
On the exit front, volatility defined Q2, but IPOs and secondaries started to show signs of life. The quarter opened with a shock: Liberation Day tariffs sent the S&P 500 tumbling over 10% in just a few days, forcing many startups with active IPO filings to slam the brakes. A partial recovery came after the Trump administration issued a 90‑day tariff pause, stabilizing public markets. By June, consumer sentiment improved for the first time since December 2024, as the market began digesting the tariff shock—though caution still prevails.
Despite the rocky start, venture exits gained momentum by quarter-end, with a handful of high-profile IPOs and billion‑dollar M&A deals. Sectors aligned with the US administration’s priorities—AI, national security, defense tech, fintech, and crypto—are attracting outsized investor interest, a trend likely to persist throughout Trump’s term. Still, the liquidity outlook for 2025 remains cautiously optimistic: this feels more like a reset than a full recovery.
The secondary market has become a crucial pressure valve for pent‑up liquidity demand. The US VC direct secondary market is now estimated at $48.1B to $71.5B (midpoint $60B)—still modest, at less than 2% of total unicorn valuations. Secondaries are quickly evolving from a last resort into a strategic liquidity tool. VC-specific secondary dry powder has more than doubled since 2022, and tender offers are gaining traction, offering companies price certainty and low cap table churn while giving early employees and investors a path to partial liquidity.
IPOs, secondaries and M&As are all possible paths for a startup, providing liquidity to early investors or founders. Looking at Latin America, while IPOs are particularly rare, and secondaries are still scarce - M&As seem to be picking up. According to a recent report by Questum, the Brazilian tech M&A market showed clear signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with deal volume surging 71.1% year over year and already reaching 72.5% of all transactions recorded in 2024. Despite high local interest rates, optimism is returning—69% of founders and investors in LatAm expect a rebound in 2025, with artificial intelligence playing a central role. The market is also more mature: buyers are far more selective, prioritizing startups with solid operations, strong governance, and clear strategic alignment.
Fintechs and ERP/IT companies dominated deal activity, reflecting ongoing demand for digital financial services, credit and payments infrastructure, and scalable SaaS B2B models with recurring revenue and predictable margins. Marketing and sales tech—especially AI-driven CRM, lead generation, and automation tools—continues to attract attention from groups looking to strengthen customer acquisition and retention channels. Healthtech remains active, fueled by electronic health records, telemedicine, and preventive care solutions, while cybersecurity has emerged as one of the hottest verticals as companies scramble to reinforce data protection and regulatory compliance. Unsurprisingly, AI-native startups or those embedding AI strategically are increasingly sought after, as efficiency and automation become decisive competitive edges.
Cross-border activity remains limited, with just nine deals led by foreign buyers—a slight increase from 2024 but still constrained by regulatory and operational barriers. Local consolidation is driving most of the activity. Middle market continues to dominate: 61.8% of deals were below R$60 million, and 87% under R$100 million, reinforcing that realistic valuations and solid fundamentals are key to getting acquired.
While the above piece of data is optimistic (thus generating liquidity for venture firms, allowing them to raise a new fund) - actually new proceeds for funds are as hard as it gets. Fundraising timelines continue to tick up: In 2025, the median time to raise a venture fund reached a record 15.3 months. Raising a venture capital fund is still much harder than it used to be—except for the elite firms.
In the first half of this year, just 12 US venture firms raised more than 50% of the total value of capital. And the top 30 firms raised 74% of all capital raised, according to another PitchBook analysis. In fact, 50 funds hold about 67% of VC industry total nav.
Venture capital is continuing its bifurcation between the large, multi-strategy firms accumulating assets at a fast pace, and smaller, boutique fund managers raising more subdued amounts. And the second half of this year is teeing up to be even busier for the big firms: Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures and Menlo Ventures are all reportedly in talks to raise multi-billion dollar funds. A16z may raise a fund in the range of $20 billion, according to the Financial Times.
To a certain extent, a similar scenario is being seen in Latin America - while virtually all emerging managers are raising, the main funds still have a lot of dry powder to invest. Thus, being able to invest in new rounds while new fund managers struggle to attract new LPs.
Looking ahead, I’m cautiously optimistic. Despite the macro headwinds, it feels like the worst may be behind us in VC. A healthier IPO pipeline in the U.S. could spark much-needed momentum for the industry as a whole. For now, it’s a matter of waiting and watching—but the signs are finally pointing in the right direction…
Just to wrap up: OpenAI has just launched its ChatGPT Agent in beta, available initially to Pro, Plus, and Team subscribers. This new tool merges previously separate features—Operator (web tool navigation) and Deep Research (long-form analysis)—into one autonomous agent that can browse the web, click through sites, run code, interact with apps like Gmail or Google Calendar, and generate deliverables like PowerPoint decks or updated spreadsheets. This marks a significant step toward agentic AI—tools that not only think but also act.
In parallel, Anthropic—one of OpenAI’s main rivals—has quietly drawn investor interest for a potential new funding round that could value the company at more than $100 billion, up from its $61.5 billion valuation in March 2025 after a $3.5 billion Series E. The surge in Anthropic’s Claude chatbot revenue, which jumped to an annualized $4 billion, is likely fueling enthusiasm among investors in AI’s next wave
General news:
BNDES unlocked a record R$70B in credit for the 2025/2026 agricultural season, up 5% YoY and 180% vs. 2022/2023. Of this, R$39.7B comes from federal programs split between agribusiness and family farming, while R$30.3B will be offered through BNDES’ own rural credit lines, including R$14.4B pegged to the dollar to support exporters. Funds target machinery, irrigation, innovation, and cooperatives, with a focus on boosting credit in Brazil’s North and Northeast. 🇧🇷
Nomad launched Nomad Wealth, a non-commissioned advisory service for high-net-worth clients (over $25K invested). Building on its U.S. broker-dealer license, Nomad aims to offer tailored global strategies and expand through partnerships, including with BlackRock. The move signals a push to go beyond dollar accounts and serve the broader financial needs of affluent Brazilians. 🇧🇷
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold $36.4M in shares under a pre-approved plan allowing up to 6M sales through December. His fortune has surged $29B in 2025, hitting $143B—now ahead of Warren Buffett. Nvidia recently hit a $4T market cap, leading the AI chip boom, while Huang retains over 858M shares. 🇺🇸
US Congress kicked off “crypto week,” voting on bills to regulate stablecoins and clarify whether tokens are securities or commodities. The move, backed by $119M in industry donations, could curb SEC power in favor of the CFTC. Bitcoin is trading near record highs, and Trump has pledged to make the U.S. a crypto superpower. 🇺🇸
Propel Venture Partners closed its $100M Fund V, pushing AUM to $436M. Focused on early-stage fintech, crypto infrastructure, and wealth platforms—particularly in Latin America—Propel writes checks from $1M–$4M. Portfolio highlights include Coinbase, Groww, and Nomad. 🇺🇸
Quartzo Capital merged with Invisto to expand beyond Brazil’s Rio-São Paulo axis. Invisto’s CEO Marcelo Wolowski now leads Quartzo’s VC arm, managing R$600M across 70 startups like Asaas and Omnichat. Quartzo plans to raise US$100M for its sixth fund by 2026, targeting regional banks, pension funds, and development agencies. 🇧🇷
Deals:
NG.CASH raised $26.5M in a Series B led by NEA, with backing from Quantum Light, Monashees, a16z, and others. Targeting Gen Z and Alpha, the fintech has 7M users in Brazil and offers AI-powered financial tools, credit, and digital accounts. Funds will expand credit lines, product development, and user growth. Since launch, NG.CASH has raised over R$300M. 🇧🇷
Pigz, a delivery startup from Roraima, is raising R$7.5M to expand via franchise partners. Profitable since year one, Pigz already processes 60K monthly orders and uses a subscription model that has saved restaurants millions in fees, challenging iFood in Boa Vista. Its platform covers in-store ordering, inventory, and payments. 🇧🇷
Creditas raised R$800M through a new credit rights fund (FIDC) to grow its auto equity and vehicle financing business. Demand hit R$2.3B, nearly 3x oversubscribed. Over 70% of Creditas’ funding now comes from capital markets. Since inception, it has raised R$7B via FIDCs and CRIs, with a R$6.2B credit portfolio. 🇧🇷
BluStone, a logistics-focused Brazilian VC, secured R$60M (~$11M) for its new fund, targeting R$100M by year-end. Founded by ex-Patria execs, BluStone will back 15–20 startups in Latin America’s $50B logistics sector, aiming for 30%+ annual returns. Cheques range R$2M–R$4M, with follow-ons reserved. 🇧🇷
General news:
RT-One is investing R$6B to build a modular AI and cybersecurity data center in Uberlândia, expected to create 2,000 jobs within three years. Starting with 100 MW of capacity (expandable to 400 MW), it will be one of Latin America’s largest. Chosen for its energy availability, innovation ecosystem, and academic ties, the project aims to decentralize Brazil’s digital infrastructure beyond traditional hubs. The center will provide HPC, advanced cooling, and secure cloud solutions for institutional clients. 🇧🇷
Trump administration has cleared Nvidia to resume H20 chip sales to China, restoring billions in lost revenue. The H20—75% less powerful than Nvidia’s top GPUs—was originally designed to comply with U.S. export rules but was banned in April. After CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump, the license was reinstated. Nvidia stock jumped 5% pre-market, reinforcing its $4T valuation and hinting at a potential thaw in U.S.-China tech tensions. 🇺🇸
Hula, a new LatAm fintech, launched an AI-native platform to automate payment reconciliation in real time, eliminating manual processes and reducing errors. Founded by fintech veteran Juan Felipe Cadena, Hula provides finance teams full transaction visibility, saving time and money while boosting operational efficiency. Though designed for Latin America, the platform was built with a global vision, targeting one of the biggest pain points in corporate finance. 🌎
Deals:
Cognition, creator of the AI coding agent Devin, has acquired Windsurf, an AI-powered IDE startup, just days after Google hired its top execs in a $2.4B deal. The acquisition includes Windsurf’s product, IP, and remaining team. With $82M ARR and 350+ enterprise clients, Windsurf had previously received a $3B OpenAI offer that expired before Cognition closed the deal in just 72 hours. The move strengthens Cognition’s position in the AI developer tools race. 🇺🇸
UY3, a Brazilian fintech, plans a new round in early 2026 after raising R$50M in June. It targets R$15B in credit transactions for 2025—3x last year’s volume. UY3 offers an end-to-end lending platform powering payroll loans, vehicle financing, and embedded finance, with AI integrated into credit analysis, service, and marketing. Founded just 3.5 years ago, its team has over 20 years’ experience in credit and securitization. 🇧🇷
General News:
Mantis Ventures, co-founded by The Chainsmokers’ Alex Pall and Drew Taggart, raised $100M for its third fund, up 25% from its last raise. Focused on B2B cybersecurity and AI, Mantis counts Chainguard and Rogo in its portfolio and saw an exit with Humul (acquired by Roblox). Pall credits their music career for building corporate networks that drive deal flow. 🇺🇸
Tivita, a Brazilian healthtech, launched AI agents Júlia and Tais to automate clinic workflows. Júlia manages patient scheduling, while Tais automates insurer billing, improving efficiency 75x. With 1,000+ clients and R$32M raised, Tivita expects to process R$150M in 2025. 🇧🇷
Rappi and Building Markets partnered to connect over 1,000 Colombian SMEs to digital commerce via Rappi Turbo. A dedicated app button now promotes locally made, sustainable products, helping close last-mile delivery gaps and offering commercial development support to selected brands. 🇨🇴
Donald Trump is suing Pix, calling Brazil’s instant payment system a threat to U.S. digital trade. The administration claims it unfairly blocks U.S. companies, with some seeing the move as retaliation for Brazil blocking WhatsApp Pay in 2020. Meanwhile, Pix keeps expanding, now moving R$26T annually and adding auto-debit features. 🇧🇷
Brazil’s Supreme Court upheld President Lula’s decree increasing the IOF tax, rejecting Congress’ attempt to overturn it. Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled that taxing financial entities and pension funds is constitutional but excluded “risco sacado” operations for overreach. The measure aims to boost revenue and reinforce Brazil’s fiscal framework after negotiations with Congress failed. 🇧🇷
Deals:
Puna Bio, an Argentinian agtech, raised a new Series A with Gates Foundation backing to expand its biofertilizer tech to Africa, tackling soil degradation and food security. Puna plans rollout in Brazil this year, serving 150+ clients and building a local team. 🇦🇷
Karta, a Miami fintech, raised $5.4M led by Canary to target wealthy Brazilians with a no-IOF, no-FX-fee credit card for foreign spending. Users can split purchases post-transaction, mimicking Brazil’s “parcelado” culture. Launched in November, it already has 3,000 users and a 6,000-person waitlist. 🇺🇸
General news:
Embrapii, FIERGS, and Numerik launched BASE, a national program to turn scientific research into deep tech startups. With 150 researchers and 30 projects to be selected, BASE offers funding, mentorship, and four tailored phases (Boost, Advance, Shape, Expand). The initiative aims to bridge academia and industry, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. Applications close July 31. 🇧🇷
Qualcomm is bringing its AI for Innovators program to Brazil and Mexico, offering up to $10K, mentorship, and AI Hub access for Edge AI startups. Applications are open until August 8. Since 2019, the initiative has scaled 26 startups globally this year alone. Selected teams keep patent rights and join a global innovation network. 🇧🇷
Brazil’s ABBC defended Pix amid U.S. trade probe accusations of “unfair practices.” The association highlighted 174M users, G20 praise, and its role in democratizing finance. Pix Parcelado, set for September, will rival credit cards, offering zero fees and transparency. 🇧🇷
Deals:
Nexa Finance, a Brazilian blockchain-based investment platform, raised R$25M in a seed round led by MAYA Capital. Targeting family offices and B2B advisors, Nexa plans to move R$500M in structured assets by 2025. Its personalized ETF-like portfolios ride on Brazil’s Open Finance and tokenization advances. 🇧🇷
Lovable, a Swedish AI startup, hit unicorn status after raising $200M (Series A) at a $1.8B valuation, just eight months post-launch. Its GPT Engineer tool lets non-programmers build apps via natural language, boasting 2.3M users and $75M ARR. Clients include Klarna and Hubspot. Lovable now targets the $4.7T corporate app market. 🇸🇪
Canopy, led by ex-Sinqia exec Thiago Rocha, raised $100M to kickstart its software M&A strategy. Backed by Bessemer and Cloud9, it also plans R$300M in debt raises and expects its first acquisition by year-end, targeting Brazil’s 9,000+ software firms. 🇧🇷
Afferolab is investing R$10M to build AI-driven corporate training tools that analyze learning data, measure skills, and reduce bias in performance assessments. Its Data Hub offers HR teams real-time insights, linking training to business outcomes. 🇧🇷
General news:
Trump signs GENIUS Act, the first U.S. federal law regulating stablecoins. The act establishes clear rules for dollar-pegged digital currencies, triggering a crypto market cap surge to $4T and sending DeFi tokens soaring on expectations of booming blockchain demand. 🇺🇸
Argentina’s BYMA will adjust trading hours to 10:30 AM–5 PM starting July 28, aligning closer to Wall Street to capture global market opportunities. The change affects all segments—cash, options, futures, and loans—and marks a step toward financial market modernization. 🇦🇷
Netflix is using AI-generated VFX to produce original content, including a building collapse scene in Argentina’s El Atonata, completed 10x faster and cheaper than traditional methods. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos says AI complements creativity, as Netflix posted $3.13B in Q2 profit with 95B+ hours watched in 2025. 🇺🇸
Meta refused to sign the EU’s AI code of conduct, calling it excessive and legally risky. The voluntary guidelines aim to ensure transparency and copyright compliance under the AI Act. European tech firms are now pushing for a two-year enforcement delay. 🇪🇺
Peru’s SMV approved rules enabling Lima, Santiago, and Colombia stock exchanges to share a common Nasdaq-based platform starting November 17. The move modernizes regional markets while maintaining country-specific trading hours. 🇵🇪
Merqueo, a Colombian e-commerce startup, shut down after $6B in debt and cooling post-pandemic demand. Once backed by $66M in VC funding, Merqueo’s collapse reflects broader LatAm VC challenges amid high inflation and scarce capital. 🇨🇴
Deals:
Tulum Energy raised $27M to scale methane pyrolysis, splitting methane into hydrogen and solid carbon with zero CO₂ emissions. A pilot plant in Mexico will supply hydrogen to steel operations, targeting $1.50/kg production costs, cheaper than most green hydrogen. 🇲🇽
The Simple Gym secured $2.18M in early-stage VC funding as of July 17, 2025.
You will see below an updated list of events, including for the second half of the year. If I forgot your event, and you want to include it - please sure to send those my way asap!
Cubo Conecta 2025
Date: September 2025 (exact dates to be announced)
Location: São Paulo, SP
Description: Celebrating its 10th anniversary, Cubo Conecta is the flagship event of Cubo Itaú, bringing together thousands of entrepreneurs, investors, and innovation leaders from across Latin America. The event offers over 90 hours of content and facilitates more than 5,000 digital connections, highlighting the potential of the technology and innovation ecosystem in the region.
Brazil Climate Summit 2025
Date: September 13–14, 2025
Location: New York, NY, USA
Description: The Brazil Climate Summit focuses on Brazil's role in the global green transition, emphasizing the importance of private sector involvement and international capital to accelerate low-carbon businesses. The event gathers leaders from various sectors to discuss sustainable development strategies.
More infoGartner CIO & IT Executive Conference 2025
Date: September 22–24, 2025
Location: São Paulo, SP
Description: A gathering of CIOs and IT leaders to discuss digital transformation, organizational leadership, and innovation strategies across industries.
More infoMoney 20/20 USA 2025
Date: October 26–29, 2025
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Description: One of the world’s leading fintech and payments conferences, Money 20/20 gathers global leaders across banking, payments, tech, and startups to explore the future of money and financial services.
More infoWeb Summit Lisbon 2025
Date: November 10–13, 2025
Location: Lisbon, Portugal
Description: One of the world’s most influential tech conferences, Web Summit Lisbon connects 70,000+ attendees from startups, enterprises, and media to discuss trends shaping the tech industry.
More infoBrazil Tech Summit 2025
Date: December 9, 2025
Location: São Paulo, SP
Description: Part of the Global Startup Ecosystem Series, Brazil Tech Summit brings together entrepreneurs, government leaders, and investors to foster tech-driven innovation across Latin America.
More info
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Sunday Drops by Lucas Abreu - congrats!!!!! the podcast is amazing
The AI Daily Brief (Formerly The AI Breakdown): Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
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